July 2025 Fuel Price Outlook Expected to Worsen Amidst Middle East Conflict

CEF-released mid-month data portrayed a marginal increase in fuel prices for July 2025, but with escalating tensions in the Middle East, with a full scale war on the cusp, those predictions are expected to worsen significantly. fuel diesel petrol refuelling June

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South African motorists should brace for steeper fuel bills in July 2025, with both petrol and diesel prices expected to rise more sharply than originally expected. The looming increase comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices on the global stage. According to mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), under-recoveries currently stand at around 43 to 46 cents per litre for petrol and 69 to 71 cents for diesel. However, with global oil prices climbing rapidly, these figures are climbing almost daily, making it likely that the final adjustment will be even higher.

Predicted July 2025 fuel price adjustment summary (Updated)

Should these conditions persist, the anticipated fuel price adjustments for June 2025 are as follows:

  • Unleaded 93: Increase of 60 cents per litre
  • Unleaded 95: Increase of 60 cents per litre
  • Diesel 500 ppm: Increase of 80 cents per litre
  • Diesel 50 ppm: Increase of 80 cents per litre

Official fuel prices for the month will be confirmed at the end of June and implemented on Wednesday, 3 July 2025.

Related: Fuel Price Increases Expected Across the Board for July 2025

The recent price instability has been fuelled by escalating conflict in the Middle East following reports of US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory airstrike on a US base in Qatar. With fears mounting over a broader regional conflict, global oil prices have responded in kind, spiking from $62.94 a barrel at the start of June to a high of $74 on the 20th, before retreating slightly to $69.10 by Sunday evening.

Related: Alfa Romeo Dominates 1000 Miglia Podium With Past and Present Models

The situation remains highly fluid, and analysts warn that any further escalation which threatens the critical Strait of Hormuz (a key artery for global oil exports) could send prices skyrocketing. Alongside this, Iran is currently the world’s ninth-largest oil producer, and is a founding and current member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The warring country delivers just under half of its 3.3 million barrels per day for export. 

While markets currently appear to believe that US involvement in the conflict will be limited but effective in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the uncertainty is driving volatility, and, in turn, putting pressure on South African fuel prices. South Africans will have to wait for their fate until Wednesday, 3 July 2025, when the prices will be implemented.

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The post July 2025 Fuel Price Outlook Expected to Worsen Amidst Middle East Conflict appeared first on CAR Magazine.


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